US President Donald Trump’s push to end the war in Ukraine appears poised to hand key concessions to Russia, leaving Kyiv and its European supporters on the sidelines as they face the prospect of a peace deal made over their heads.
But they aren’t the only major players grappling with the fallout of Trump’s pivot to Russia that has upended years of US foreign policy in a burst of rapid-fire diplomacy.
In Beijing, too, the breakneck turn of events is seen to be raising questions about how the US peace drive will impact Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s carefully wrought partnership with Russian President Vladimir Putin – and China’s precarious relations with the Trump administration.
Just weeks ago, China appeared set for a key role in Trump’s Ukraine peace efforts. The US leader had repeatedly suggested he could work with Xi, using China’s economic sway over Russia to help end the conflict – important leverage for Beijing as it aims to avert a trade war with the world’s largest economy.
That would have aligned with Beijing’s longstanding efforts to present itself as a neutral party and voice of the Global South that is ready to broker peace in the grinding conflict – even as NATO accused it of supplying Moscow’s defense industry with dual-use goods. China defends its “normal trade.”
Now, Beijing finds itself neither involved in the negotiations as a Russian ally nor a voice of global gravitas – so far, at least, left on the outside of the swift developments that observers say have surprised Chinese officials – and sent them scrambling to find an upside.
A ‘reverse Nixon’?
The stakes are high for Xi, who for years has assiduously cultivated both a personal bond with his “old friend” Putin and his country’s relations with Russia – seeing his northern neighbor as a pivotal partner in a larger power struggle with the West.
The Chinese leader took a calculated risk as Russian tanks rolled over the Ukrainian border three years ago. His choice not to condemn that invasion and have his country serve as Putin’s lifeline – lapping up Russian oil and supplying Moscow with key goods – lost Beijing the trust of Europe and galvanized American allies in Asia to work more closely with NATO.
Chinese officials in recent days have voiced approval of the “agreement” between the US and Russia to start peace talks.
“China supports all efforts conducive to peace talks,” top diplomat Wang Yi said at a meeting of the United Nations Security Council Tuesday, the same day top Russian and US officials met in Saudi Arabia to lay the groundwork for negotiations on ending the fighting in Ukraine.
But comments from American officials in recent days are likely to have drawn attention from Beijing to potential underlying US objectives as it works with Russia.
Top US diplomat Marco Rubio named the possibility for future “geopolitical and economic cooperation” between Washington and Moscow as among four key points discussed in Riyadh.
Days earlier, the Trump administration’s Russia-Ukraine envoy Keith Kellogg told a panel discussion in Munich that the US hoped “to force” Putin into actions he was “uncomfortable with,” which could include disrupting Russia’s alliances with Iran, North Korea – and China.
Observers are skeptical that Washington could shatter the Russia-China relationship, given their deep alignment against the US-led order and Moscow’s entrenched economic dependence on Beijing.
But any worries that may be playing out in China about whether Trump – a leader who’s repeatedly professed his admiration for both Putin and Xi – could unwind their bond is likely underscored by the echoes of past mistrust between the neighbors.
Bitter territorial disputes along their lengthy shared border erupted in conflict between Soviet Russia and a young People’s Republic of China in 1969 and were only largely resolved in the 1990s.
Then there’s the diplomatic coup engineered by President Richard Nixon and his adviser Henry Kissinger, who exploited a split between the Communist-ruled neighbors to establish relations with Beijing and swing the Cold War balance of power in the US’ favor.
Though that history is unlikely to be repeated, observers say even a hint of a new shift in allegiances is a boon for Washington’s goals.
“Even if it’s just 30% of a ‘reverse Nixon’ … that’s going to sow the seeds of doubt,” said Yun Sun, director of the China Program at the Stimson Center think tank in Washington.
“That’s going to make Xi Jinping question the strategic alignment that (he spent) the past 12 years to build with Russia – ‘maybe it’s not that dependable, maybe it’s not so solid.’”
If a day comes that China decides to invade Taiwan then, “the Chinese will have to look at their back and wonder – what is Russia going to do?” she added, referring to the self-ruling democratic island Beijing claims. “And for the United States, that’s deterrence.”
A place at the table?
But others say Beijing may have greater confidence in its ties with Moscow.
“Chinese and Russian relations are in a league of their own, they have a strong basis and strong institutional connections in the past decades,” said Yu Bin, a senior fellow at the Russian Studies Center of the East China Normal University in Shanghai.
Yu pointed to the two countries’ efforts to push for multilateralism and build out their own international organizations like BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, as well as the need to maintain their own border stability. “I don’t think either side would let that go because Trump is there for four years,” he said.
Instead, China is worried “that once Russia and the US patch up their differences and achieve some degree of peace in Ukraine, that would free the Trump administration to turn its focus to China,” Yu said.
US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth signaled as much last week, when he told European counterparts the US can’t focus primarily on security on their continent when it must prioritize “deterring war with China.”
Had Trump been unable to engage Putin directly, Beijing may have tried to ease some frictions with the US by working with Washington on bringing the Russian leader to the table – but now it’s unclear whether China will take any role in future Ukraine peace negotiations.
However, observers say that if an accord is reached, Beijing could send peacekeeping forces to Ukraine via the United Nations and would be keen to play a role in the country’s reconstruction.
For now, Chinese officials have used a flurry of diplomacy in recent days to try and win back love lost with Europe – calling in public statements for “all relevant parties and stakeholders involved in the Ukraine crisis” to “engage in the peace talks process,” in a nod to Europe’s right to a seat at the table.
At the same time, they’ve also looked to play up their potential to take a role, while implying that Trump’s apparent turn to Putin proves Beijing’s stance was correct all along.
Meanwhile, Ukraine, has raised the prospect that it could try and recruit China as its own ally.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who has received little attention from Beijing since the start of the war, suggested as much following a Saturday meeting between top Chinese diplomat Wang and Ukrainian officials in Germany.
“It is important for us to engage China to help put pressure on Putin to end the war. We are seeing, I think, for the first time, China’s interest,” Zelensky told a news conference Tuesday. “This is mostly due to the fact that all the processes are now accelerating.”
As to who should be at the negotiating table, the Ukrainian leader added it should be countries “ready to take responsibility for guaranteeing security, providing assistance, stopping Putin, and investing in Ukraine’s recovery.”